It Is Unwise to Give Infectious Diseases a Truce
An urban legend falsely attributes the following quote—debunked and clearly wrong in its predictive power—to Dr. William H. Stewart, U.S. Surgeon General from 1965 to 1969:
“It is time to close the book on infectious diseases and declare the war against pestilence won.”
For years, Dr. Brad Spellberg investigated the origin of this claim without finding any documentary evidence that Stewart ever actually said it. However, it is true that in the early 1970s, many experts shared a general sense of optimism about controlling infectious diseases. This led to the notion that the "war" had been won—and even suggestions that the number of infectious disease specialists should be reduced. In a 1978 editorial in the New England Journal of Medicine, Dr. Robert G. Petersdorf, a renowned infectious disease physician and educator, and one of the leading figures in modern medicine at the time, wrote:
Ouch.
This statement, reaffirmed in a 1986 speech to the Infectious Diseases Society of America, reveals how profoundly misguided that optimism was. Since then, not only have infectious diseases not disappeared—they have resurged with enormous social and economic consequences. Some key examples:
HIV/AIDS Epidemic: Recognized in 1981, though we now know it had been circulating since the 1920s. Today, over 39 million people live with HIV, with 1.3 million new infections annually worldwide—31,800 in the United States.
COVID-19 Pandemic: Since 2020, over 7 million confirmed deaths have been reported. However, estimates of excess mortality suggest approximately 18.2 million additional deaths occurred between January 2020 and December 2021.
SARS Epidemic (2002–2004): Affected 29 countries, with 8,000 infections and 774 deaths. International collaboration achieved containment. Mortality rate: 10%.
H1N1 Influenza Pandemic (2009–2010): Infected over 1.4 million people with relatively low mortality but demonstrated how easily new viruses can spread.
West Africa Ebola Epidemic (2013–2016): The largest Ebola outbreak to date, with more than 11,000 deaths.
Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS): Identified in 2012, still causes sporadic cases with an estimated mortality rate of 30%.
Zika Virus Epidemic (since 2015): Transmitted by mosquitoes, mainly affected the Americas. Its link to microcephaly and congenital defects caused global alarm.
Cholera: Now in its seventh pandemic since 1961, it remains a major public health issue in developing nations.
Measles: A vaccine-preventable disease that has resurged in developed countries like the U.S. due to insufficient vaccine coverage.
Tuberculosis: The leading cause of death from infectious disease globally, with 1.5 million annual deaths.
Avian Influenza H5N1: Since its identification in 1996, it has caused 982 human cases and 472 deaths. In 2025 alone, it has led to the culling of over 166 million poultry and cost more than $1.4 billion in the U.S.
Antibiotic Resistance: Causes more severe, costlier infections and increased mortality. The CDC estimates 2.8 million infections and over 35,000 deaths annually in the U.S.
Healthcare-Associated Infections: About 1 in every 31 hospitalized patients in the U.S. acquires one, with an estimated cost of over $4.6 billion per year.
These examples disprove any notion that infectious diseases are a thing of the past. And yet, recent public policy decisions seem to ignore these hard-learned lessons
During a presentation to anti-vaccine supporters in Georgia in November 2023 — while still a presidential candidate — the now Secretary of Health, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., not only said he felt “at home” among them, but also declared that, if elected president, he would give the fight against infectious diseases an “eight-year rest” and focus his efforts on research into chronic illnesses and issues related to children's health.
What may have seemed like a rhetorical campaign promise is now beginning to take shape under President Trump’s administration and with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at the helm of the Department of Health:
Weak Response to the Measles Outbreak: This was the first crisis faced by Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., just days after taking office, and it remains ongoing. According to the CDC report dated May 30, 2025, 1,088 cases have been reported, with 3 confirmed deaths and 12% of patients hospitalized. Dr. David Sugerman, a CDC epidemiologist, estimates the economic cost per case—including medical treatment, contact tracing, isolation measures, and technical support to local and state health departments—ranges from $30,000 to $50,000.
Reversal of COVID-19 Vaccination Recommendations: Despite scientific evidence showing that pregnancy is a high-risk factor for severe illness, higher mortality, and obstetric complications, Secretary Kennedy eliminated vaccination recommendations for pregnant women. This decision contradicts guidelines from the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists and the World Health Organization.
Elimination of the CDC's HIV Prevention Division: The Trump administration has proposed dissolving this division, dismantling decades of work in surveillance, prevention, and education. Additionally, funds for developing a potential HIV vaccine were cut, despite promising results from preclinical and clinical trials.
50% Budget Cut to the CDC: This severely undermines the agency's operational capacity across multiple domains, from outbreak response to immunization and community prevention programs. The loss of technical staff and specialists has weakened public health networks in numerous states.
Cancellation of Avian Influenza H5N1 Vaccine Contract: In May 2025, the Department of Health and Human Services, led by Kennedy, canceled a $766 million contract to continue developing an mRNA vaccine against H5N1, despite positive results from phase 1 and 2 trials indicating strong immunogenicity and preliminary safety. The administration cited “concerns over scientific standards” without providing clear technical justification.
Lack of Leadership and Communication Restrictions at the CDC: Four months into President Trump’s second term, the CDC has yet to appoint a new director. Meanwhile, the agency faces restrictions on its public and scientific communications, including prior approval of statements, suspension of press conferences, and delays in publishing epidemiological data.
While Secretary Kennedy’s interest in improving U.S. population health—especially in areas like chronic disease, child health, and nutrition quality—is acknowledged, the decisions made so far have severely weakened the institutional framework that enabled historic public health achievements. For instance, budget cuts have impacted the Environmental Health Science and Practice Division (DEHSP), which protects the public from toxic contaminants in food and water and responds to outbreaks on cruise ships and in restaurants. Key positions have also been eliminated at the FDA, affecting food inspections, laboratory testing, and early responses to foodborne disease outbreaks.
We don’t need to dismantle infectious disease prevention infrastructure to advance other areas of public health. In fact, history has shown that prevention is the foundation of improvements in U.S. health indicators. Unfortunately, these achievements are often invisible to the public and many policymakers—reinforcing the mistaken perception that such investments are no longer necessary.
That is, until the next infectious crisis emerges, and once again finds us less prepared than we should be—even though the warning signs were in plain sight.
Now is not the time to pause research and investment in the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases.